Iran's economy
Hamid Khavari; taghi ebrahimi salari
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
Economic insecurity means the existence of risks limiting economic growth. On the other hand, considering that economic insecurity has important effects on consumption decisions, savings and labor market balance, it can be said that economic security is an important ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
Economic insecurity means the existence of risks limiting economic growth. On the other hand, considering that economic insecurity has important effects on consumption decisions, savings and labor market balance, it can be said that economic security is an important part of economic well-being, which is largely affected by the country's economic policies. Policies and programs to deal with inflation and especially the effect of monetary policies on the nominal and real variables of the economy is one of the most important topics in the literature of monetary economics. Price stability is considered as the main goal of monetary policy in almost all countries. In order to achieve low and stable inflation, effective and efficient tools should be used in monetary policy affairs. Of course, the correct understanding of the concept of inflation and the factors affecting is considered essential to achieve price stability. Economists believe that the costs that inflation imposes on society can be much more serious than the costs of slowing down economic growth. Instability resulting from inflation not only damages the credibility of macroeconomic policymakers, especially the central bank, but its continuation can also cause acute cases of political instability in countries. In this regard, demand management policies and especially monetary policies are one of the important tools to achieve these goals. Monetary policies are without a doubt the most direct influencing and determining factor of inflation, and by using and correctly guiding monetary policies, one can achieve stable economic growth while achieving low and stable inflation. Trade-off between inflation and unemployment has always been the concern of economists and basic theories such as the Phillips curve have been proposed in this regard. Economists have generalized the aforementioned trade-off and used economic growth instead of unemployment and put forward a concept called the sacrifice ratio. Sacrifice ratio shows the amount of lost production per 1% reduction in inflation, and along with the Phillips curve, it has always been very important in the direction of government and central bank policies, especially contractionary policies.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Based on this, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of inflation-fighting monetary policies on economic growth and security in Iran. As a result of the study, the costs of a deflationary policy are also measured in terms of lost production during the years (1998-2021). For this purpose, after examination the theoretical foundations of the research in relation to the concept and indicators of economic security, the benefits and harms of inflation on the risks that reduce economic growth and security, and the effects of policies to deal with inflation, a review of the background Studies of the studied subject are carried out.
3- METHODOLOGY
This research examines changes in economic growth and economic security index in Iran. Through modeling the application of a contractionary monetary policy for the period of 1988-2021 by using the Structural Autoregression model (SVAR).
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Our results show that the contractionary impulse on the growth of the country's liquidity has a negative reaction on the growth of GDP per capita in the short run. But in the long run and gradually with the reduction of inflation, its initial effects will be moderated and the country's economic growth will improve. Based on this, the calculated production sacrifice ratio is -3.52. According to the results of the research, the negativeness of the calculated ratio means that in Iran's economy, the application of monetary policy to achieve a lower inflationary trend has a long effect interval (about five years). Over the years, production not only compensates for its initial decrease over time, but also increases by 3.52%. Also, in the examination of the relationship between the economic security index and the negative impulse of the monetary policy, it can be seen that it has a negative reaction in the short run, which is mostly due to the direct effects of the reduction in production growth and also the reverse effects of the growth of the prices on the economic security index. In the long run, the gradual decrease in inflation leads to the improvement of the economic security index. The results also show that both in the short run and in the long run, the most important variable affecting the changes in production growth is the impulse resulting from the economic security index, which indicates the great importance of the stability of economic conditions, whether the absence or reduction of unemployment risks, the risk of growth of health costs and private treatment shows the risk of poverty and risks caused by inflationary uncertainties.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
To achieve the purpose of conducting the study we investigated the effects of disinflation monetary policies on the country's economic growth and security, as well as measuring the costs of a deflationary policy in terms of lost production during the period under review, first, the economic security index based on Ozberg and Sharp's study (2001) calculation and its trend was analyzed. Then, by specifying the theoretical model of the research, the stationary of the variables was checked by using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The final variables used in this research are: economic security index, per capita GDP growth, liquidity growth and inflation changes. The results of the Augmeted Dickey-Fuller stationary test showed that all these variables have unit root. Next, the SVAR model was estimated and structural constraints were applied, and after that, impulse response functions and variance decomposition were analyzed. The results showed that the contractionary impulse on the growth of liquidity has a negative reaction on the part of production growth in the short run, but in the long run due to its moderating effects on the country's inflation, the economic growth gradually increased and its fluctuations trended up to 7 periods are completely lost. According to the definition of production sacrifice ratio, it measures the accumulated loss in real production as a result of a permanent decrease in the inflation process. It is observed that with the applied deflationary policy, it takes about 5 periods (years) for inflation to be permanently moved to a lower level. The reduction rate of inflation is about 0.17%. Also, the total production loss due to the application of this policy during the five-year period is equal to -0.6%. Therefore, the calculated sacrifice ratio is equal to -3.52. The negativeness of the calculated ratio means that in Iran's economy, applying monetary policy to achieve a lower inflationary trend has a long effect interval (about five years) and during these years, not only production compensates its initial decrease over time, but also increases by 3.52%. Also, in the examination of the relationship between the economic security index and the negative impulse of the monetary policy, it can be observed that it has a negative reaction in the short run, which is mostly due to the direct effects of the reduction in production growth and also the reverse effects of the growth of the prices on the economic security index. In the long run, the gradual decrease in inflation leads to the improvement of the economic security index. To summarize the degree of importance and the degree of influence of each variable, analysis of the variance of the prediction error of the production growth variable was used. The results of this study show that both in the short run and in the long run, the most important variable influencing changes in production growth is the impulse of the economic security index, which is very important for the stability of economic conditions, whether the absence or reduction of unemployment risks, the risk of growth of health costs. And private treatment shows the risk of poverty and risks caused by inflationary uncertainties. The results of the analysis of the variance of the prediction error of the economic security index variable also show, the most important factors explaining the changes in the country's economic security are different in the short and long run. According to the specified model, in the short run, changes in production growth and inflation cause more than half of the changes in the economic security index. But in the long run, their effects will decrease and the growth momentum of liquidity is able to explain about 10% of the changes in the economic security index. Therefore, the effect of the contractionary impulse of the growth of liquidity through reducing inflation and promoting the growth of GDP in the long run has a positive effect on the country's economic security index. According to the results obtained from the analysis of research results regarding Iran, inflation control policies are recommended despite its adverse effects on production levels in the short-term, taking into account the long-term positive effects on the security index and economic growth. and follow up policy makers.
Emad Kazemzadeh; nooshin karimi alavijeh; taghi ebrahimi salari
Abstract
Introduction Good governance is an index designed by the World Bank to classify governments in terms of their attention to people and their social and economic status. One of the most important factors in implementing good governance in many countries has been environmental decision making, in today's ...
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Introduction Good governance is an index designed by the World Bank to classify governments in terms of their attention to people and their social and economic status. One of the most important factors in implementing good governance in many countries has been environmental decision making, in today's world, the environment is one of the most important issues facing people. Various factors affecting the environment include economic variables (industrialization, trade and technological inequality), political variables (democracy and despotism), social variables (urbanization and literacy rate) and government (size and quality of government). In this study, the effect of good governance on CO2 emissions in G8 countries is investigated. Theoretical framework Governance has a broad meaning that is directly related to domains such as the economic environment or, in other words, economic security, politics, society and rights. The World Bank has introduced governance indicators to reflect the institutional quality of countries. These indicators include voice and accountability, political stability, control of corruption, regulatory burden, government effectiveness and rule of law. Various aspects of governance, both direct and indirect, affect carbon dioxide emissions. Methodology Quantile regressions id based on a symmetric and asymmetric loss function and calculated similarly to the estimation of parameters in the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. The general definition of quantile regression is that if the linear regression model is assumed to be the following: = + , 0 (1) ) = (2) Equation (2), the condition quantile function τ distribution of y shows to the condition of random variables x, where the following condition holds. ) = To estimate the coefficients of the model, minimize the value of the absolute value of the errors is used with proper weighing: Equation (3) obtains answers by linear programming. In this study, a panel quantile regression method with fixed effects is used. Consider the following fixed-effect panel quantile regression model: Where is the conditional 100 quantile of , is the fixed-effects parameters correlated with , which exhibits the unobservable effects of each specific country and is the slope coefficient at the 100 quantile. The unique feature of this method is that a penalty term in minimizing to address the computing problem introduces a sum of parameters; Estimates of the parameters are as follows: min(α,β) (5) In relation (5), i indicates the number of countries (N), T time period, K, the level of quantiles, x the matrix of explanatory variables and the quantile loss function. In addition, shows the relative weight for kth quantile. In this paper, = 1/K is considered. λ is the adjustment parameter that reduces the individual effects of to zero to improve the performance of β. Results & Discussion The model presented in this study is as follows: The description of variables is as follows: Table (1) - Introduction of variables Variable Definition CO2 Carbon dioxide emissions (metric tons) ENC Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) GDP Economic growth (GDP per capita constant at 2010 prices) TRADE Trade openness GOVERN Governance Index URB Urbanization (urban population/total population) INDUS Industrialization The proposed model is estimated at various quantiles (0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 0.95) and the results are presented in Table (2). Also, for comparative analysis, the results of estimating the OLS method are reported in the last column of Table (2). Table (2) – Panel quantile regression results Variable Quantiles ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ 5th 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 95th Ols fixed ENC .0190*** .0193*** .0191*** .01919*** .0189*** .0191*** .0188*** .01905*** .01923*** .0191*** .0192*** 0.022*** GDP -.0136 -.0128 -.037** -.076* -.062* -.062* -.040** -.0294* -0.004 -.010 -0.009** -0.012** TRADE .0296*** .0236*** .019*** .008 .002 .002 -.009 -.011** -.020*** -.019*** -.0183*** 0.084*** GOVERN -1.008*** -.992*** -1.550*** -2.175*** -1.208** -1.013* -.763*** -.556** -.151 -.1256 -.0738 -2.276*** URBAN 0.030*** 0.0292*** 0.029*** 0.030*** 0.018*** 0.018*** 0.016*** 0.014** 0.011*** 0.012*** 0.012*** 0.101*** INDUS .253*** .270*** .277*** .271*** .082* .041 .044** .0343** .0403*** .035*** .032*** 0.156*** Constant -14.391*** -14.402*** -15.438*** -15.614*** -4.730** -2.625 -1.409 -.3849 .884 1.547*** 1.730*** 3.512*** Pseudo R2 0.736 0.728 0.718 0.705 0.720 0.756 0.795 0.832 0.854 0.867 0.874 0.90 Notes ;***significance at the 1% level, **significance at the 5% level, *significance at the 10% level. The estimation results in Table (2) show that energy consumption at all quantile levels from 5% to 95% has a positive and significant effect. As shown in Figure (1), the effect of energy consumption on CO2 emissions in all countries has a constant trend. GDP has a negative effect on CO2 emissions at all quantile levels, the results of the OLS estimates also confirm the negative relationship between GDP and carbon dioxide emissions. The results of different quantile levels show a strong and positive effect on the relationship between governance and CO2 expansion. Trade openness in the quantile of 5% to 20% has a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions, but for the quantile levels above 70%, the increase in trade has a negative impact on CO2 emissions. The relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions is positive and significant at all quantile levels. The relationship between industrialization and carbon dioxide expansion is also positive and significant at all quantile levels. Chart (1)-Estimation results of panel quantile regression Conclusions & Suggestions This study investigates the effect of governance on carbon dioxide emissions in the G8 countries over the period 1996 to 2016 using the panel quantile regression method. The results show that the effect of the good governance index, which shows the quality of a country's public institutions and the ability of the government to perform its duties, has a negative and significant effect on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that represent environmental status in all quantiles. However, this effect is stronger in the lower quantiles and reduces the movement to the higher quantiles.
